<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/html4/loose.dtd"> <html> <head> <title>CES Frequently Asked Questions</title> <!-- ****************************************** Begin META TAGS ********************************************* --> <!--#include virtual="/include/global/head.stm"--> <!--#include virtual="/include/meta/bls.txt"--> <!--#include virtual="/include/meta/ces.txt"--> <!-- ****************************************** End META TAGS *********************************************** --> </head> <body> <!-- ****************************************** Begin HEADER ************************************************ --> <!--#include virtual="/include/ces/ces_header_two_col_basic.txt"--> <!-- ****************************************** End HEADER ************************************************** --> <!-- Begin Main Content --> <H1 id = "heading">Current Employment Statistics Frequently Asked Questions</H1> <div class="highlight-box-blue"> <table class ="simple-table"> <thead > <tr align="left"> <th> <p><a href="#DataOverview">Data Overview</a></p> </th> <th> <p><a href="#SurveyMethods">Survey Methods</a></p> </th> <th> <p><a href="#EstimationMethods">Estimation Methods</a></p> </th> <th> <p><a href="#Revisions">Revisions</a></p> </th> <th> <p><a href="#Respondents">Respondents</a></p> </th> </tr> </thead> </tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td> <ul> <li><a href="#AvailableData">Available Data</a></li> <li><a href="#Classification">Classification</a></li> <li><a href="#DataRetrieval">Data Retrieval</a></li> </ul> </td> <td > <ul> <li><a href="#TheSample">The Sample</a></li> <li><a href="#DataCollection">Data Collection</a></li> </ul> </td> <td > <ul> <li><a href="#EmploymentConcepts">Employment Concepts</a></li> <li><a href="#HoursandEarningsConcepts">Hours and Earnings Concepts</a></li> <li><a href="#BirthDeath">Birth/Death</a></li> <li><a href="#SeasonalAdjustment">SeasonalAdjustment</a></li> <li><a href="#OtherCESEstimationConcepts">Other CES Estimation Concepts</a></li> </ul> </td> <td > <ul> <li><a href="#MonthlyRevisions">Monthly Revisions</a></li> <li><a href="#Benchmarking">Benchmarking</a></li> </ul> </td> <td> <ul> <li><p><a href="#Respondents">Respondents</a></p></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div> <h3 id="expand_h3">[<a href="" onClick="showAll(); return false;" id="expand" style="text-decoration:underline">Expand All</a>]</h3> </div> <br> <h3 id="DataOverview">Data Overview</h3> <br> <ol> <li><a href="" id='qa1' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a1'); return false;">What is the CES survey?</a> <div id='aa1' class='answer'> <p>The establishment payroll survey, known as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, is based on a survey of approximately 144,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 554,000 worksites throughout the United States. The primary statistics derived from the survey are monthly estimates of employment, hours, and earnings for the Nation, States, and major metropolitan areas. Preliminary National estimates for a given reference month are typically released on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference period in conjunction with data derived from a separate survey of households, the Current Population Survey (CPS). The reference period for the CES survey is the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. </p> <p>For more information about the CES survey, see the CES Technical Notes at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa2' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a2'); return false;">How does CES data compare to other program's data?</a> <div id='aa2' class='answer'> <h4>CES compared with CPS</h4> <p>The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is a monthly survey of business establishments (or jobs). The CES produces estimates on the number of employees on nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings, average weekly earnings, and average weekly hours. The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households (or people). The household survey produces estimates about the labor force, the employed, the unemployed, the unemployment rate, and demographic information about the employed and unemployed. More information about the differences between the CPS and the CES surveys is available at <a href="/web/ces_cps_trends.pdf">www.bls.gov/web/ces_cps_trends.pdf</a>. </p> <p>For more information about the CPS survey, see the CPS homepage at <a href="/cps/home.htm">www.bls.gov/cps/home.htm</a>.</p> <h4>CES compared with QCEW</h4> <p>The CES and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) programs are related but do not report the exact same information at the same frequency. The QCEW program publishes a quarterly count of employment and wages covering 98 percent of U.S. jobs, available at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), State and National levels by industry. The CES program surveys about 144,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 554,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls on a monthly basis.</p> <p>Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax reports, submitted by nearly all businesses in the U.S., are used as both the input data for QCEW data and as the majority of the sample frame for the CES survey and cover almost all private industries and government agencies. CES employment figures are benchmarked each year in large part using data from the QCEW program because both surveys use the pay period including the 12th of the month as the reference period for employment. </p> <p>QCEW quarterly wages include total compensation paid during the calendar quarter to all workers; CES hours and earnings data are reported for all employees and for production or non-supervisory employees in private industry who received pay (whether they worked or not) during any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. CES earnings do not include irregular bonuses or retroactive pay. </p> <p>CES data is published 3 weeks after the week that includes the 12th of the month, typically the first Friday of the following month. QCEW data is published much later, approximately 6 months after the end of the reference period. </p> <p>More information about the differences between the QCEW, CES, and other establishment-based employment measures is available at <a href="/news.release/cewqtr.tn.htm">www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.tn.htm</a>. For additional information about the QCEW survey visit <a href="/cew/cewover.htm">www.bls.gov/cew/cewover.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa3' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('ca3'); return false;">Why are there multiple monthly measures of employment?</a> <div id='aa3' class='answer'> <p>The household survey administered by the Current Population Statistics (CPS) program and establishment survey administered by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program both produce sample-based estimates of employment and both have strengths and limitations. The establishment survey employment series has a smaller margin of error on the measurement of month-to-month change than the household survey because of its much larger sample size. An over-the-month employment change of about 100,000 is statistically significant in the establishment survey, while the threshold for a statistically significant change in the household survey is about 400,000. However, the household survey has a more expansive scope than the establishment survey because it includes self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers, and private household workers, who are excluded by the establishment survey. The household survey also provides estimates of employment for demographic groups. </p> <p>More information about the differences between the two surveys is available at <a href="/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf</a>. </p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="AvailableData"> Available Data</h3> <li><a href="#" id='qa4' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a4'); return false;">What data are available from CES?</a> <div id='aa4' class='answer'> <p>The Current Employment Statistics program administers the establishment survey and uses the data collected to produces monthly nonfarm payroll estimates. The types of data produced include the following:</p> <ul> <li>All employees </li> <li>Production or nonsupervisory employees (depending on industry) </li> <li>Women employees </li> <li>Average weekly hours </li> <li>Average hourly earnings (constant dollar and current dollar) </li> <li>Average weekly earnings </li> <li>Average overtime in Manufacturing </li> <li>Indexes of aggregate hours and payrolls</li> <li>Diffusion indexes </li> </ul> <p>All data are available not seasonally adjusted, and some data are available seasonally adjusted.</p> </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa5' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a5'); return false;">How often are CES data released and when can I expect each monthly CES press release?</a> <div id='aa5' class='answer'> <p>The Employment Situation report is released monthly, typically on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, which is the week that includes the 12th of the month. A table of upcoming Employment Situation release dates is available at <a href="/ces/ces_tabl.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/ces_tabl.htm</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa6' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a6'); return false;">Are preliminary CES estimates available?</a> <div id='aa6' class='answer'> <p>The BLS LABSTAT database, available at <a href="/ces/#data">www.bls.gov/ces/#data</a>, has only the latest published statistics. More information about how to access the correct BLS data using the data retrieval tools is available under Data Retrieval at (<a href="/ces/cesfaq.htm#DataRetrieval">www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm#DataRetrieval</a>). </p> <p>We do not keep a separate database of first-published numbers. However, preliminary estimates for some data types for a limited level of industry detail can be obtained from archived news releases available here <a href="/schedule/archives/empsit_nr.htm">www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/empsit_nr.htm</a>, from the monthly publication Employment and Earnings available here <a href="/opub/ee/">www.bls.gov/opub/ee/</a>, or from the monthly revision tables available here <a href="/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa7' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a7'); return false;">Are historical CES employment estimates available prior to 1939?</a> <div id='aa7' class='answer'> <p>Current Employment Statistics employment data date back to 1939 at the highest levels of aggregation. Most detailed industries only date back to 1990, and all employee hours and earnings series began in 2006. For a complete list of start dates for NAICS-based all employee series, see <a href="/ces/cesseriespub.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/cesseriespub.htm</a>. </p> <p>Additionally, discontinued SIC-based employment estimates are available from 2003 going back to 1964 and in some cases as far back as 1939 or 1919. These series are not directly comparable with our current NAICS-based series. To access these discontinued CES data please go to <a href="/ces/data.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/data.htm</a> and click on &quot;Create Customized Tables&quot; under the Discontinued Data Series section. If you have JAVA loaded on your computer, choose one screen, and otherwise, choose multiple screens. A new window should open allowing you to select data on an SIC basis. For more information about SIC coding of industries, visit <a href="/ces/cesnaics.htm#3.2.3">www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics.htm#3.2.3</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa8' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a8'); return false;">Are historical CES hours and earnings estimates available prior to 1964?</a> <div id='aa8' class='answer'> <p>Manufacturing and other goods-producing industries were the primary focus of early industry data produced by the BLS. Therefore, hours and earnings time series for these industries have a relatively long history. Data for Manufacturing and its broadest industry categories begin in 1939, and for Mining and Construction, in 1947. Prior to 1964, however, the collection of hours and earnings data for the Service-providing sector was limited to a few select industries. Given this incomplete industry coverage along with the size of the services portion of the economy, it was not possible to compute hours and earnings estimates for all of the private industries. Beginning in 1964, the collection of hours and earnings data for services was expanded to an extent sufficient to compute Total private hours and earnings estimates. These estimates were first published in 1967. </p> <p>Discontinued SIC-based hours & earnings estimates are available from 2003 going back to 1964 and in some cases as far back as 1947 or 1939. These series are not directly comparable with our current NAICS-based series. To access these discontinued CES data please go to <a href="/ces/data.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/data.htm</a> and click on &quot;Create Customized Tables&quot; under the Discontinued Data Series section. If you have JAVA loaded on your computer, choose one screen, and otherwise, choose multiple screens. A new window should open allowing you to select data on an SIC basis. For more information about SIC coding of industries, visit <a href="/ces/cesnaics.htm#3.2.3">www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics.htm#3.2.3</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa9' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a9'); return false;">Why doesn't CES collect agricultural employment? Is agricultural employment available elsewhere?</a> <div id='aa9' class='answer'> <p>CES draws its sample and sets benchmark employment from the business establishment list maintained by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. This universe for business establishments is based on Unemployment Insurance (UI) administrative records, so workers who are not covered by UI will not be captured. In Agriculture there are numerous exemptions to requirements for UI coverage, making the sample frame for Agriculture insufficient for calculating statistically sound estimates. In addition, a substantial number of Agricultural enterprises are self-proprietorships, which are out of scope for the CES survey.</p> <p>Historically, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Census of Agriculture has been the primary survey used to measure farm labor. The Census of Agriculture is available at <a href="http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/index.php">www.agcensus.usda.gov/index.php</a>.</p> <p>Some BLS data about Agricultural employment can be obtained from the QCEW (<a href="/cew/home.htm">www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm</a>), Current Population Survey (<a href="/cps/home.htm">www.bls.gov/cps/home.htm</a>), and Occupational Employment Statistics (<a href="/oes/home.htm">www.bls.gov/oes/home.htm</a>) programs.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa10' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a10'); return false;">Are CES estimates by size of establishment available?</a> <div id='aa10' class='answer'> <p>The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is examining the feasibility of publishing monthly CES employment, hours, and earnings estimates by firm size. Currently, BLS publishes the first preliminary CES employment estimates for a given month at selected industry detail. Subsequent estimates for that month are published in more industry detail with the following month's first estimates. Research suggests that the available sample may make it feasible to publish monthly size-class employment estimates by major industry sector together with the first preliminary estimates. Employment change by firm size would add a valuable dimension of detail to understanding current employment trends. More information about the experimental CES size class series is available at <a href="/ces/cessizeclass.htm"> www.bls.gov/ces/cessizeclass.htm</a>. </p> <p>Some data by size of establishment are also available from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (<a href="/cew/home.htm">www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm</a>) program.</p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="Classification">Classification</h3> <li><a href="" id='qa11' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a11'); return false;">How are the CES estimates categorized?</a> <div id='aa11' class='answer'> <p>CES estimates are categorized by ownership and industry. Respondents are assigned an ownership code &mdash; private or public &mdash; with public ownership further divided into Federal, State, or local. Respondents are then assigned a North American Industry Classification (NAICS) code. NAICS codes group establishments into industries based on the activity in which they are primarily engaged. Establishments using similar raw material inputs, similar capital equipment, and similar labor are classified in the same industry. More information about NAICS codes in general can be found here: <a href="/bls/naics.htm">www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm</a>. More information about NAICS codes in the CES program can be found here: <a href="/ces/cesnaics.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa12' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a12'); return false;">How are the CES survey respondents categorized?</a> <div id='aa12' class='answer'> <p>CES survey respondents are categorized by Unemployment Insurance (UI) accounting code, location, ownership, size, and reporting unit. Each business has also been categorized into a certain industry by North American Industry Classification (NAICS) code. Establishments are stratified by UI account number for the purpose of sample allocation and selection. The sample strata, or subpopulations, are defined by State, metropolitan statistical area, industry, and employment size, yielding a State-based design. Thirteen industries (treating Manufacturing as one industry and not including Government) and 8 size classes result in 104 total allocation cells per State.</p> <p>More information about these categories and how they are used to draw the CES sample of establishments is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1a">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1a</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa13' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a13'); return false;">How did series change when CES switched from using the Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)?</a> <div id='aa13' class='answer'> <p>After 60 years of use, the CES program retired the SIC system and replaced it with the NAICS. NAICS is the product of a collaborative effort between the United States (U.S.), Canada, and Mexico. A classification system shared across the three countries allows direct comparison of economic data across borders in North America.</p> <p>NAICS codes are not related to SIC codes; rather NAICS is a completely redesigned way of coding industries. NAICS recognizes hundreds more businesses than SIC did, largely in the fast-growing service sector.</p> <p>The U.S. Census Bureau issued a notice, available at <a href="http:www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/federal_register_notices/notices/fr09ap97.pdf"> www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/federal_register_notices/notices/fr09ap97.pdf</a>, making NAICS effective in the U.S. in April 1997 and published the first NAICS U.S. manual in mid-1998. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not transition to the first version of NAICS, NAICS 1997. Instead, NAICS 2002 was the first version implemented by BLS, and the CES program converted from SIC to NAICS in June 2003. Reviews of NAICS are scheduled every five years; NAICS 2012 is the most current version.</p> <p>More information about NAICS in the CES program is available at <a href="/ces/cesnaics.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics.htm</a>. More information about the CES conversion from SIC to NAICS 2002 is available at <a href="/ces/cesnaics02.htm"> www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics02.htm</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa14' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a14'); return false;">How has NAICS changed since its implementation in the CES estimates?</a> <div id='aa14' class='answer'> <p>The U.S. Census Bureau reviews and updates their NAICS codes every 5 years. Once these updates are available to BLS, CES converts all estimates to these revised NAICS codes. The most current version is NAICS 2012. More information about NAICS 2002, NAICS 2007, and NAICS 2012 is described and linked below.</p> <h4>NAICS 2007 to NAICS 2012 Conversion</h4> <p>With the release of January 2012 data on February 3, 2012, CES updated the National nonfarm payroll series to the NAICS 2012 from the NAICS 2007 basis. The conversion to NAICS 2012 resulted in minor content changes within the Manufacturing and the Retail trade sectors, as well as minor coding changes within the Utilities and the Leisure and hospitality sectors. Several industry titles and descriptions also were updated. All employee (AE) series are published at a more detailed level than all employee hours and earnings, production employee, women employee, or production employee hours and earnings series, collectively called non-AE series. The non-AE series were sometime unaffected or affected at a less-detailed level than the AE series.</p> <p>Further information about the NAICS 2012 conversion for both the AE and non-AE series is available at <a href="/ces/cesnaics12.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics12.htm</a>.</p> <p>The full concordance between NAICS 2007 and NAICS 2012 codes is available through the US Census Bureau at <a href="http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/concordances/2012_to_2007_NAICS.xls">www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/concordances/2012_to_2007_NAICS.xls</a>.</p> <h4>NAICS 2002 to NAICS 2007 Conversion</h4> <p>With the release of January 2008 data on February 1, 2008, the CES National nonfarm payroll series updated to the NAICS 2007 from the NAICS 2002 basis. The conversion to NAICS 2007 resulted in minor definitional changes within Manufacturing, Telecommunications, Financial activities, and Professional and technical services. Several industry titles and descriptions also were updated.</p> <p>Further information about the NAICS 2007 conversion is available at <a href="/ces/cesnaics07.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics07.htm</a>.</p> <p>The full concordance between NAICS 2002 and NAICS 2007 codes is available through the US Census Bureau at <a href="http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/concordances/2007_to_2002_NAICS.xls">www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/concordances/2007_to_2002_NAICS.xls</a>.</p> <h4>SIC 1987 to NAICS 2002 Conversion</h4> <p>With the release of May 2003 data on June 6, 2003, the CES National nonfarm payroll series underwent a number of changes. The basis for industry classification changed from the SIC 1987 to the NAICS 2002. NAICS replaced the SIC system. The CES survey published National data on a NAICS 2002 basis with the release of May 2003 data on June 6, 2003. SIC-based data is no longer produced or published; it is still be available but not updated past April 2003.</p> <p>Further information about the NAICS 2002 conversion is available at <a href="/ces/cesnaics02.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics02.htm</a>.</p> <p>The full concordance between SIC and NAICS 2002 codes is available through the US Census Bureau at <a href="http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/concordances/2002_NAICS_to_1987_SIC.xls">www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/concordances/2002_NAICS_to_1987_SIC.xls</a>.</p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="DataRetrieval">Data Retrieval</h3> <li><a href="" id='qa15' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a15'); return false;">How can I get CES estimates?</a> <div id='aa15' class='answer'> <p>CES data are published monthly, but are also available as historical time series. The data are available as part of a monthly news release, as a searchable database, and in text format. The table below lists the ways to download CES data from <a href="/ces/home.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm</a>. Archived editions of Employment and Earnings Online are available from April 2007 forward here: <a href="/opub/ee/archive.htm"> www.bls.gov/opub/ee/archive.htm</a>. Earlier back issues are kept at federal depository libraries.</p> <p>To join the BLS e-mail subscription service that provides excerpts from and links to The Employment Situation, Real Earnings, and other BLS news releases of interest, visit the BLS News Service Subscription E-mail page, available at <a href="https://subscriptions.bls.gov/accounts/USDOLBLS/subscriber/new"> subscriptions.bls.gov/accounts/USDOLBLS/subscriber/new</a>. </p> <!-- BEGIN WIZARD OUTPUT --> <table id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls" class="regular" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" xborder="1"> <caption><span class="tableTitle">CES Data Retrieval Options</span></caption> <thead> <tr> <th class="stubhead" rowspan="1">Source</th> <th>Website</th> <th>Please Note:</th> <th>Format</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.1" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">Employment & Earnings news release</p></th> <td><a href="/ces/tables.htm#ee">www.bls.gov/ces/tables.htm#ee</a></td> <td>The data are not at the most detailed industry levels.</td> <td>HTML table</td> </tr> <tr class="greenbar"> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.2" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">Real Earnings</p></th> <td><a href="/news.release/realer.toc.htm">www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.toc.htm</a></td> <td>Data are adjusted for inflation to 1982-84 dollars.</td> <td>HTML table</td> </tr> <tr> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.3" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">CES top picks</p></th> <td><a href="http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ce">data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ce</a></td> <td>The data are not at the most detailed industry levels, time periods can be adjusted to include more than 10 years, and only seasonally adjusted data are included in the list.</td> <td>HTML table or Excel (.xls) download</td> </tr> <tr class="greenbar"> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.4" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">One Screen Data Search</p></th> <td><a href="http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ce">data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ce</a></td> <td>JAVA must be installed on your computer and pop-up blockers must be turned off. Choose each option in order of the red numbers. Time periods can be adjusted to include more than 10 years, both seasonally and not seasonally adjusted data are included, graphs can be automatically generated, and the table format can be changed.</td> <td>HTML table or Excel (.xls) download</td> </tr> <tr> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.5" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">Multi-screen Data Search</p></th> <td><a href="http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?ce">data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?ce</a></td> <td>If you do not have JAVA, this tool will search the same data base as the One Screen Data Search. Time periods can be adjusted to include more than 10 years, both seasonally and not seasonally adjusted data are included, graphs can be automatically generated, and the table format can be changed.</td> <td>HTML table or Excel (.xls) download</td> </tr> <tr class="greenbar"> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.6" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">Text Files</p></th> <td><a href="http://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/ce/">download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/ce/</a></td> <td>Only seasonally adjusted data are included.</td> <td>Text files</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <!-- END WIZARD OUTPUT --> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa16' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a16'); return false;">Why is my data no longer showing up in any of the data retrieval tools?</a> <div id='aa16' class='answer'> <p>BLS requires that all published Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates meet strict quality and privacy guidelines. These guidelines are designed to ensure that there is adequate sample to produce statistically sound estimates and protect the confidentiality of our survey respondents. CES estimates are subject to annual review to determine if they meet BLS publication and disclosure standards. Failure to meet the standards may stem from inadequate sample size, inadequate sample response rates, or dominance of the sample by a few reporters. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa17' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a17'); return false;">How can I get CES microdata or data about a certain company?</a> <div id='aa17' class='answer'> <p>The mission of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is to collect, process, analyze, and disseminate essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor. In order to maintain credibility and trust with our survey respondents, confidentiality protections for our data are essential. Protecting the confidentiality of data is central to accomplishing the BLS mission. </p> <p>When collecting data, the BLS makes a pledge of confidentiality to its respondents. This pledge varies depending on the context of each survey, but the standard BLS confidentiality pledge promises that data collected are used for statistical purposes only. Information about the BLS confidentiality policy and the laws that protect reporters to BLS surveys can be found here: <a href="/bls/confidentiality.htm">www.bls.gov/bls/confidentiality.htm</a>. </p> <p>Researchers can get access to Bureau of Labor Statistics microdata under certain circumstances. Information about qualifying for the program and the application process through which access may be granted can be found here: <a href="/bls/blsresda.htm"> www.bls.gov/bls/blsresda.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa18' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a18'); return false;">How do I get real earnings estimates?</a> <div id='aa18' class='answer'> <p>The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey collects earnings data for private nonfarm business establishments, excluding Government. To calculate the real earnings series, these nominal dollar earnings estimates for all employees (AE) back to 2006 and for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) starting as early as 1964 (depending on the industry) are adjusted for inflation using 1982-1984 dollars. The data is available on our website at <a href="/ces/data.htm"> www.bls.gov/ces/data.htm</a>. Click on &quot;CES Data Access Tips&quot; for further instructions.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa19' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a19'); return false;">How do I get government earnings data?</a> <div id='aa19' class='answer'> <p>The CES program does not collect or publish Government hours or earnings data. Government earnings data is available from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. QCEW provides annual, quarterly, and weekly wage data for various private and government industries based on Unemployment Insurance tax reports. However, they do not convert nominal earnings to constant dollars. The conversion is accomplished by dividing current dollars by the current CPI, then multiplying by 100 (which is equivalent to dividing the current dollars by the ratio of the current CPI to the base period CPI of 100). QCEW wage information can be found at <a href="/cew/home.htm"> www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm</a>. CPI price index information can be found at <a href="/cpi/home.htm">www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qa20' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('a20'); return false;">How do I get average payroll frequency?</a> <div id='aa20' class='answer'> <p>The BLS does not publish average payroll frequency of establishments. However, the CES survey does adjust for different payroll frequencies which can affect seasonally adjusted hours and earnings estimates. More information about CES seasonal adjustment methodology can be found at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5</a>. </p> </div> </li> </ol> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="Survey Methods">Survey Methods</h3> <br> <ol> <h3 id="TheSample">The Sample</h3> <li><a href="" id='qb1' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('b1'); return false;">How do I find information about the CES sample?</a> <div id='ab1' class='answer'> <p>The Current Employment Statistics (CES) sample is a stratified, simple random sample of worksites, clustered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) account number. The UI account number is a major identifier on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Longitudinal Database (LDB) of employer records, which serves as both the sampling frame and the benchmark source for the CES employment estimates. The sample strata, or subpopulations, are defined by State, industry, and employment size, yielding a State-based design. The sampling rates for each stratum are determined through a method known as optimum allocation, which distributes a fixed number of sample units across a set of strata to minimize the overall variance, or sampling error, on the primary estimate of interest. The Total nonfarm employment level is the primary estimate of interest, and the CES sample design gives top priority to measuring it as precisely as possible, or minimizing the statistical error around the National Total nonfarm employment estimates.</p> <p>Information about the current CES sample can be found in the CES Technical Notes available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qb2' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('b2'); return false;">How reliable are the CES estimates?</a> <div id='ab2' class='answer'> <p>The establishment survey, like other sample surveys, is subject to two types of error, sampling and nonsampling error. The magnitude of sampling error, or variance, is directly related to the size of the sample and the percentage of universe coverage achieved by the sample. The establishment survey sample covers over one-third of total universe employment; this yields a very small variance on the Total nonfarm estimates. More information about error in the CES survey and measurements of the error associated with sample estimates are available in the CES Technical Notes at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1c">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1c</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qb3' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('b3'); return false;">Does the CES sample include small firms?</a> <div id='ab3' class='answer'> <p>Yes, about 40 percent of the establishment survey sample is comprised of business establishments with fewer than 20 employees. The establishment survey sample is designed to maximize the reliability of the Total nonfarm employment estimates for each State; firms from all size classes and industries are appropriately sampled to achieve this goal. Sample data are weighted to represent other establishments in the same State, industry, and size class. More information about the sampling methods used for the CES survey is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1a"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1a</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qb4' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('b4'); return false;">How are government agencies different from other establishments in the CES sample?</a> <div id='ab4' class='answer'> <p>The CES government sample is not part of the probability-based survey design. CES is able to achieve a very high percent of universe employment coverage (75 percent) by obtaining full payroll employment counts for many government agencies, thus a probability-based sample design is not necessary for Government. The high coverage rate virtually assures a high degree of reliability for the Government employment estimates. The large Government sample does not bias the Total nonfarm employment estimates because it is used to estimate only the Government portion of Total nonfarm employment. The probability sample is used to estimate employment for all industries in the private sector. Total private and Government estimates are summed to derive Total nonfarm employment estimates.</p> <p>More information about coverage levels of both private and government employment in the CES sample is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1b">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section1b</a>.</p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="DataCollection">Data Collection</h3> <li><a href="" id='qb5' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('b5'); return false;">How are the CES data collected?</a> <div id='ab5' class='answer'> <p>Each month, BLS collects data on employment, payroll, and paid hours from a sample of establishments. To encourage participation in this voluntary survey, BLS uses a variety of collection techniques, tailored to individual firm preferences. Data collection centers perform initial enrollment of each firm via telephone, collect the data for several months via Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI), and where possible transfer respondents to a self-reporting mode such as touch-tone data entry, fax, or Internet collection. Very large, multi-establishment firms' ongoing reporting is established via Electronic Data Interchange (EDI). Firms using EDI provide electronic files to BLS that include data from all their worksites.</p> <p>More information about CES data collection is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section2"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section2</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qb6' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('b6'); return false;">Where can I find collection rates for the CES sample?</a> <div id='ab6' class='answer'> <p>CES tracks collection rates for the CES sample on a monthly basis for each release of estimates. Collection rates are the percent of reports received for a monthly estimate compared to the total number of actively-reporting sample units on the sample registry. </p> <p>More information about registry receipts is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6</a>.</p> <p>More information about CES data collection rates is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cesregrec.htm"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesregrec.htm</a>.</p> </div> </li> </ol> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="EstimationMethods">Estimation Methods</h3> <br> <ol> <li><a href="" id='qc1' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c1'); return false;">How does CES compute its monthly estimates?</a> <div id='ac1' class='answer'> <p>The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program uses a matched sample concept and weighted link relative estimator to produce employment, hours, and earnings estimates. A matched sample is defined to be all sample members that have reported data for the reference month and the month prior. Excluded from the matched sample is any sample unit that reports that it has zero employees. </p> <p>More information about CES monthly estimation is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5a">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5a</a>.</p> <p>Links to the equations for the calculation of CES monthly estimation of employment, hours, and earnings are listed in the table below.</p> <!-- BEGIN WIZARD OUTPUT --> <table id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls" class="regular" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" xborder="1"> <caption><span class="tableTitle">CES Equations for the Estimation of Employment, Hours, and Earnings</span></caption> <thead> <tr> <th class="stubhead" rowspan="1">Equation Title</th> <th>Equation Location</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.1" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">Equation 4. All employees</p></th> <td><a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#Eq4">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#Eq4</a></td> </tr> <tr class="greenbar"> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.2" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">Equation 5. Production and nonsupervisory employees</p></th> <td><a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#Eq5">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#Eq5</a></td> </tr> <tr> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.3" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">Equation 6. Average weekly hours</p></th> <td><a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#Eq6">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#Eq6</a></td> </tr> <tr class="greenbar"> <th id="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r.4" headers="cesdataretrievaloptionstable.xls.r"><p class="sub0">Equation 7. Average hourly earnings</p></th> <td><a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#Eq7">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#Eq7</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <!-- END WIZARD OUTPUT --> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="EmploymentConcepts">Employment Concepts</h3> <li><a href="" id='qc2' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c2'); return false;">How does CES define employment?</a> <div id='ac2' class='answer'> <p>CES employment is an estimate of the number of nonfarm, payroll jobs in the U.S. economy. Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full- or part-time who received pay (whether they worked or not) for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any employees who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. A striking employee who only works a small portion of the survey period, and is paid, would be included as employed under the CES definitions. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment. Data exclude proprietors, self-employed, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Persons on layoff the entire pay period, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period, or who have a pending job but have not yet reported for work are not counted as employed. Government employment covers only civilian employees; it excludes uniformed members of the armed services. </p> <p>For more information about CES employment, see the CES Technical Notes at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section4a"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section4a</a>.</p> <p>The definition of employment in the Current Population Survey (the household survey) is available at <a href="/cps/faq.htm#Ques4"> http://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques4</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc3' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c3'); return false;">What employment does the CES survey exclude and how does this affect the estimates?</a> <div id='ac3' class='answer'> <p>CES draws the survey sample from roughly 9 million U.S. business establishments covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system representing 97 percent of all employment within the scope of CES in the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Excluded from the CES scope, although they are included in the list of establishments covered by UI taxes, are private households and agricultural businesses. </p> <p>The remaining 3 percent of establishments included in the CES scope that are not covered by UI laws are students paid by their school as part of a work study program, interns of hospitals paid by the hospital for which they work, employees paid by State and local government and elected officials, independent or contract insurance agents, employees of non-profits and religious organizations (this is the largest group of employees not covered), and railroad employees covered under a different system of UI administered by the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB). More information about noncovered employment and the methodology used to include this employment in the CES estimates can be found in the CES Technical Notes at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#NCE">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#NCE</a>.</p> <p>The CES data also exclude proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family employees, farm employees, and domestic employees. Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc4' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c4'); return false;">How are production and nonsupervisory employees different from all employees in the CES survey?</a> <div id='ac4' class='answer'> <p>The production and nonsupervisory employee groups vary by industry. In service-providing industries, these data are collected for nonsupervisory employees &mdash; those who are not owners or who are not primarily employed to direct, supervise, or plan the work of others.</p> <p>In Goods-producing industries, the data are collected for production employees in Mining and logging and in Manufacturing, and for construction employees in Construction. Production and construction employees include working supervisors or group leaders who may be "in charge" of some employees, but whose supervisory functions are only incidental to their regular work. The production employee/construction employee categories in Goods-producing industries exclude employees not directly involved in production, such as managers, sales, or accounting personnel.</p> <p>More information about which employees are included or not included in the definitions of all employees and production and non-supervisory employees is available on the back of the CES report forms at <a href="/ces/idcfcesforms.htm"> www.bls.gov/ces/idcfcesforms.htm</a>, or in the CES Technical Notes, available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section4a"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section4a</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc5' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c5'); return false;">Are part-time employees counted in the CES survey?</a> <div id='ac5' class='answer'> <p>Yes, the CES survey captures counts of all employees on the payroll, including part-time employees. However, part-time employees are not counted separately from full-time employees, so CES data does not include separate estimates of part- and full-time employment.</p> <p>The Current Population Survey (CPS) does have a separate estimate of part-time employees. More information about CPS collection of full- and part-time employment is available at <a href="/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#fullpart"> www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#fullpart</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc6' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c6'); return false;">Are undocumented immigrants counted in the CES estimates?</a> <div id='ac6' class='answer'> <p>It is likely that the CES survey includes at least some undocumented immigrants. However, the establishment survey is not designed to identify the legal status of workers. Therefore, it is not possible to determine how many are counted in the survey.</p> <p>The Current Population Statistics (CPS) survey, also known as the household survey, does include questions which identify the foreign and native born employees, but it does not include questions about the legal status of the foreign born employees. More information about foreign born employees in the CPS survey is available at <a href="www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm#foreignborn"> www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm#foreignborn</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc7' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c7'); return false;">How do reservists impact the CES survey?</a> <div id='ac7' class='answer'> <p>The BLS is unable to quantify the impact of reservists being called to active duty in CES employment figures. In concept, persons on active military duty for the entire survey reference period are not included on employer payrolls. Some reservists hold jobs not covered by the payroll survey &mdash; such as the self-employed or those in agriculture &mdash; and others may not hold jobs at all. Any reservist who worked for or received pay from their regular employer during the survey reference period is counted on the employer's payroll. If reservists are replaced by new employees on an employer's payroll during the pay period including the 12th of the month, there is no net change in the number of jobs counted. If reservists are not replaced, a net decline in the employer's job count results. If a reservist and a replacement employee for the reservist each worked at any time during the same reference pay period, they are counted as two employees.</p> <p>Government employment includes only civilian employees. Military personnel on active duty are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc8' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c8'); return false;">How are persons with multiple jobs counted in the CES survey?</a> <div id='ac8' class='answer'> <p>Establishments report the number of persons on payroll during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. A person working multiple jobs at different establishments is counted once at each establishment. A person working different jobs at the same business establishment is counted once.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc9' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c9'); return false;">Can sever weather, natural disasters, government shutdowns, or other catastrophic events affect the CES survey?</a> <div id='ac9' class='answer'> <p>Unusually severe weather, natural disasters, government shutdowns, and other catastrophic events are more likely to have an impact on CES estimates of average weekly hours than on employment. In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Average weekly hours are estimated for paid time during the pay period, including pay for holidays, sick leave, or other time off. Any event in which employees are prevented from working a normal schedule typically results in a reduction in average weekly hours. For example, some employees may be off work for part of the pay period and not receive pay for the time missed, while some workers, such as those dealing with cleanup or repair, may work extra hours.</p> <p>In order for catastrophic events to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be out of work without pay for the entire pay period. About two-thirds of all employees in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semi-monthly, or monthly pay period. Employees who receive pay for any part of the pay period, even 1 hour, are counted in the payroll employment figures. Because the hours that employees work can be impacted by these special circumstances, but those employees might still be counted as employed by an establishment if they were paid for work done during a portion of the pay period, it is not possible to quantify the effect of catastrophic events on estimates of employment from the establishment survey.</p> <p>In addition to their direct impact, these events sometimes have secondary effects. When the magnitude of significant secondary effects are known these secondary effects are discussed in the monthly news release The Employment Situation and other BLS publications.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc10' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c10'); return false;">Why does the total employment for the Nation not equal the sum of total employment for the States?</a> <div id='ac10' class='answer'> <p>BLS independently develops a National employment series; State estimates are not forced to sum to National totals. Because each State series is subject to larger sampling and nonsampling errors than the National series, summing them cumulates individual State level errors and can cause distortions at an aggregate level. Due to these statistical limitations, BLS does not compile a &quot;sum-of-States&quot; employment series, and cautions users that such a series is subject to a volatile error structure.</p> <p>More information about the differences in State and National CES estimates is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section4e"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section4e</a>.</p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="HoursandEarningsConcepts">Hours and Earnings Concepts</h3> <li><a href="" id='qc11' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c11'); return false;">What is the difference between wages and earnings?</a> <div id='ac11' class='answer'> <p>The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces earnings, but not wage data. CES average earnings are a measure of gross payrolls divided by total hours paid during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Averages of hourly earnings differ from wage rates. Earnings are the return to an employee for a stated period on average in an industry; rates are the amount stipulated for a given unit of work or time in a specific job. Average hourly earnings do not represent employers total compensation costs because they exclude items such as employee benefits, irregular bonuses and commissions, retroactive payments, and the employer's share of payroll taxes. A more comprehensive explanation is available at <a href="/opub/hom/homch2.htm">www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch2.htm</a>. </p> <p>The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program produces wages by industry, available at <a href="/cew/home.htm"> www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm</a>. The Occupational Employment Survey produces wages by occupation (instead of industry), available at <a href="/oes/home.htm">www.bls.gov/oes/home.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc12' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c12'); return false;">Do the CES hours and earnings estimates include overtime?</a> <div id='ac12' class='answer'> <p>Yes, employers report total gross pay earned during the entire pay period, including overtime pay but excluding irregular payments, and the total number of hours for which employees received pay during the entire pay period including overtime. Overtime hours are published for manufacturing industries only. Respondents in Manufacturing report the total number of hours for which employees received overtime premiums because they worked more than their regularly scheduled hours.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc13' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c13'); return false;">What data should I use for an escalation clause in a contract?</a> <div id='ac13' class='answer'> <p>The BLS recommends that CES earnings series not be used in contract escalation clauses. Instead, we recommend that you use the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which measures changes in labor costs free from the influence of employment shifts among industries and occupations. For help on how to use the ECI for contract adjustments, visit <a href="/ncs/ect/escalator.htm"> www.bls.gov/ncs/ect/escalator.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="BirthDeath">Birth/Death</h3> <li><a href="" id='qc14' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c14'); return false;">How does the CES survey account for employment from new businesses? What is the CES net birth/death adjustment?</a> <div id='ac14' class='answer'> <p>The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total employment level because each month new firms generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between a firm opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from Unemployment Insurance (UI) quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7-9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the firm, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, CES cannot sample and begin to collect data from new firms until they are at least a year old. </p> <p>There is a parallel though somewhat different issue in capturing employment loss from business deaths through monthly sample collection. Businesses that have closed are unlikely to respond to the survey, and data collectors may not be able to ascertain until after the monthly collection period that firms have in fact gone out of business. As with business births, hard information about business deaths eventually becomes available from the lagged UI tax records. </p> <p>Difficulty in capturing information from business birth and death units is not unique to the CES; virtually all current business surveys face these limitations. Unlike many surveys, CES adjusts for these limitations explicitly, using a statistical modeling technique. Because the goal of the CES program is to estimate an employment total each month and business births and deaths are important components contributing to these totals, CES uses a model-based adjustment in conjunction with the sample. Without the net birth/death model-based adjustment, the CES nonfarm payroll employment estimates would be considerably less accurate.</p> <p>More information about the CES net birth/death model is available in the CES Birth/Death Frequently Asked Questions <a href="/ces/cesbdqa.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdqa.htm</a> or in the CES Technical Notes at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5c"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5c</a>. Current net birth/death contributions to the CES employment estimates are available at <a href="/web/empsit/cesbd.htm">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="SeasonalAdjustment">Seasonal Adjustment</h3> <li><a href="" id='qc15' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c15'); return false;">What is a seasonally adjusted estimate?</a> <div id='ac15' class='answer'> <p>Most series published by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program show a regularly recurring seasonal movement that can be measured from past experience. By eliminating that part of the change attributable to the normal seasonal variation, it is possible to observe the cyclical and other nonseasonal movements in these series. Seasonal adjustment is the process by which these normal seasonal patterns are removed from the estimates leaving behind only non-seasonal trends and irregular movements. Seasonally adjusted estimates of employment and other series are generated using the X-12 ARIMA program developed by the United States Census Bureau. This program adjusts estimates for fluctuations that occur on a regular basis within a year. For example, employment in retail trade rises prior to the Christmas holiday season and then falls following the holiday. This holiday change in retail trade is seasonal and is removed by seasonally adjusting the series. Seasonally adjusted series are published monthly for selected employment, hours, and earnings estimates. </p> <p>More information about seasonal adjustment in the CES program is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cesseasadj.htm"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesseasadj.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc16' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c16'); return false;">When did seasonal adjustment of CES data begin?</a> <div id='ac16' class='answer'> <p>BLS published employment on a seasonally adjusted basis beginning in April 1955. Before this period, the Federal Reserve seasonally adjusted CES employment; those series are available on the St. Louis FED website at <a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/11"> research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/11</a>. Hours and earnings were first seasonally adjusted by CES in July 1960.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc17' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c17'); return false;">When was the 4/5 week seasonal adjustment first implemented and why?</a> <div id='ac17' class='answer'> <p>The 4/5 week adjustment used in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program's seasonal adjustment procedures adjusts for inconsistencies in the CES series that arise because of variations of 4 or 5 weeks between reference periods in any given pair of months. In highly seasonal months and industries, this variation can be an important determinant of the magnitude of seasonal hires or layoffs that have occurred at the time the survey is taken, thereby complicating seasonal adjustment. </p> <p>The CES program first incorporated a 4/5 week adjustment with the release of May 1996 data. At that time, historical estimates were revised for the 4/5 week differences back to January 1986. Furthermore, historical data was again re-seasonally adjusted using the 4/5 week adjustment back to January 1986 when CES switched from SIC-based industry definitions to NAICS-based industry definitions in 2003. </p> <p>A research paper discussing these 4 to 5 week inconsistencies in the CES estimates called <em>Adjusting for a Calendar Effect in Employment Time Series</em> (1996) is available at <a href="/ore/pdf/st960190.pdf">www.bls.gov/ore/pdf/st960190.pdf</a>. More information about the CES seasonal adjustment process and special model adjustments such as the 4 to 5 week calendar effect are available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5e">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5e</a>. </p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="OtherEstimationConcepts">Other CES Estimation Concepts</h3> <li><a href="" id='qc18' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c18'); return false;">What is the small domain model?</a> <div id='ac18' class='answer'> <p>The CES Small Domain Model (SDM) is used for National and State estimation of a small number of series with sampling limitations. The CES SDM is a weighted least squares model with two employment inputs: <ol> <li> an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, and </li> <li> an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) projection based on trend from ten years of historical QCEW data.</li> </ol> These two over-the-month change estimates are then weighted based on the variance of each of the estimates. </p> <p>More information about the CES SDM including which series are estimated using the SDM is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5e">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section5e</a>. More information about the QCEW program is available at <a href="/cew/home.htm">www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qc19' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('c19'); return false;">What is the ship building or shipyard index?</a> <div id='ac19' class='answer'> <p>The shipyard index tracks the relative change in the dollar amount of average hourly earnings over a given period of time for certain shipyards contracted to do work for the Navy. In calculating the index, each yard s current straight-time hourly earnings are weighted according to its share of aggregate hours for all yards over the past 12 months. Then, this current weighted earnings measure is compared with the equivalent weighted earnings measure for a given base period (May 1987 for the index that includes lump sum payments and September 1980 for the one that does not). The index is scaled so that the base value equals 100. The values for the other months are expressed as a percentage of the base value.</p> <p>For the purposes of the CES shipyard index, a lump-sum payment is defined as a payment made to all production workers in lieu of all or part of a wage increase; no other lump-sum bonuses are included. When a payment is reported, it is prorated forward based on the number of weeks in each month of the lump-sum period.</p> <p> The ship building indices are available at <a href="/ces/cesship.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/cesship.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> </ol> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <h3 class="tab_link" id="t5" href="#Revisions">Revisions</h3> <ol> <li><a href="" id='qd1' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('d1'); return false;">Why does the CES survey have revisions?</a> <div id='ad1' class='answer'> <p>The CES survey revises published estimates to improve its data series by incorporating additional information that was not available at the time of the initial publication of the estimates. CES revises its initial monthly estimates twice, in the immediately succeeding 2 months, to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey. More information about the monthly revisions is available at <a href="/ces/cesrevinfo.htm"> www.bls.gov/ces/cesrevinfo.htm</a>. </p> <p>On an annual basis, CES incorporates a benchmark revision that re-anchors estimates to nearly complete employment counts available from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, County Business Pattern data, and other State collected data. The benchmark helps to control for sampling error in the estimates. More information about the annual benchmark revision is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm">www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm</a>.</p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qd2' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('d2'); return false;">When are CES estimates no longer subject to revisions?</a> <div id='ad2' class='answer'> <p>It can be nearly 2 years before not seasonally adjusted CES estimates are considered final. Current Employment Statistics (CES) first preliminary estimates of employment, hours, and earnings are published each month approximately 3 weeks after the reference period. Estimates are then revised twice before being held constant until the annual benchmark release. Second preliminary estimates for a given month are published the month following the initial release, and final sample-based estimates are published 2 months after the initial release. The annual benchmark revisions affect nearly 2 years of data, so most months are subject to revisions during 2 separate benchmark periods. </p> <p>Seasonally adjusted CES estimates are generally subject to revisions for 5 years after their initial publication. Current Employment Statistics (CES) first preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of employment, hours, and earnings are published each month approximately 3 weeks after the reference period. Estimates are then revised twice before being held constant until the annual benchmark release. Second preliminary estimates for a given month are published the month following the initial release, and final sample-based estimates are published 2 months after the initial release. Once a year with the benchmark release, 5 years of seasonally adjusted CES estimates are re-seasonally adjusted. </p> <p>For most series, CES uses 10 years of not seasonally adjusted data as an input to seasonal adjustment. However, the all employee hours and earnings series begins in 2006. Until CES has a full 10 years of input data for the AE hours and earnings series, CES will use the entire history of the not seasonally adjusted series as inputs and replace the entire history of the seasonally adjusted data. Continuing these updates until all years have been adjusted using a full 10 years of input data ensures that all data are adjusted using the same methodology. </p> <p>Further revisions may occur after the final estimates have been produced due to changes in scope, NAICS revisions, data errors, or other circumstances that require the reconstruction of historical CES estimates.</p> <p>More information about the monthly revisions is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6a"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6a</a>. More information about the benchmark revisions is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6b"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6b</a>.</p> </div> </li> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 id="Benchmarking">Benchmarking</h3> <li><a href="" id='qd3' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('d3'); return false;">What is a benchmark in the CES survey?</a> <div id='ad3' class='answer'> <p>The benchmark adjustment, a standard part of the CES survey estimation process, is a once-a-year re-anchoring of the sample-based employment estimates to full population counts available principally through Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records filed by employers with State labor market information agencies. The difference between the March population counts and the March sample-based employment estimates is referred to as the benchmark revision. A preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is published in late September, and the final benchmark revision, affecting 21 months of previously published data and anchored to March of the previous year, is published with the January preliminary estimates in early February. </p> <p>More information about the CES benchmarking process is available at <a href="/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qd4' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('d4'); return false;">What makes up the benchmark employment amount in the CES survey?</a> <div id='ad4' class='answer'> <p>The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program maintains a quarterly tabulation from administrative records of the number of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) laws, including Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE). UI universe counts, available on a lagged basis, contain individual employer records for approximately 9 million establishments and cover nearly 97 percent of Total nonfarm employment; these records provide most of the benchmark levels for the sample-based estimates. For the small segment of the population not covered by UI, BLS develops employment benchmarks from several alternative sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board and County Business Patterns. </p> <p>More information about CES benchmark revisions are available in the Benchmark Article at <a href="/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm</a> or in the CES Technical Notes at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6b"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6b</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qd5' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('d5'); return false;">How does the benchmark revisions affect months prior to the benchmark month in the CES survey?</a> <div id='ad5' class='answer'> <p>Following standard BLS methodology for National estimates, the March UI-based benchmark employment level replaces the March sample-based employment estimate, and the estimates for the 11 months prior to the benchmark month are adjusted using a wedge procedure. In this process, the difference, or error, between the benchmark level and the previously published March estimate for each estimating cell is computed. This difference is linearly distributed across the 11 months of estimates subsequent to the previous benchmark. For example, the benchmark revision that was released in February 2013 replaced the March 2012 estimate with the benchmark level, increasing the employment level for that month by 424,000. To wedge this adjustment over the prior year, 1/12 of the difference was added to April 2011, 2/12s to May and so forth, through February 2012 which received 11/12s of the difference. Employment for March 2011 had been set to a benchmark amount in the prior year and was not revised with the March 2012 benchmark. The wedge procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. </p> <p>Employment benchmarks are applied to not seasonally adjusted estimates. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 5 years of historical data may revise, because new models for seasonal adjustment are selected and seasonal factors based on the new models are updated with each year s benchmark release. </p> <p>More information about benchmarking is available in the CES Technical Notes at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6b"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6b</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qd6' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('d6'); return false;">How does the benchmark revisions affect months after the benchmark month in the CES survey?</a> <div id='ad6' class='answer'> <p>Estimates for the period after the benchmark is applied, called the post-benchmark period, are calculated for each month by applying previously derived over-the-month sample change ratios to the revised March levels. New net birth/death model estimates also are calculated and included in post-benchmark estimation. Additionally, new sample from the annual sample update is introduced starting with the third release of estimates for November following the benchmark month. </p> <p>Employment benchmarks, including the post-benchmark period, are applied to not seasonally adjusted estimates. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 5 years of historical data may revise, because new models for seasonal adjustment are selected and seasonal factors based on the new models are updated with each year s benchmark release. </p> <p>More information about benchmarking is available in the CES Technical Notes at <a href="/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6b"> www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6b</a>. </p> </div> </li> </ol> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <h3 class="tab_link" id="t6" href="#Respondents">Respondents</h3> <ol> <li><a href="" id='qe1' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('e1'); return false;">How can I report my data?</a> <div id='ae1' class='answer'> <p>To begin reporting through the Internet, please go to the BLS Internet Data Collection System site at <a href="http://cesdata.bls.gov">cesdata.bls.gov</a>. </p> <p>If you have any questions while reporting, please call our helpdesk at 1-800-827-2005 or email <a href="mailto:ceswebhelp@bls.gov">ceswebhelp@bls.gov</a>. </p> </div> </li> <li><a href="" id='qe2' class='question' onClick="showAnswer('e2'); return false;">Is the survey voluntary?</a> <div id='ae2' class='answer'> <p>Each month the CES program surveys about 144,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 554,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of employees on nonfarm payrolls. Input to this survey is greatly appreciated.</p> <p>In most States the CES survey is voluntary. However, it is required by law in North Carolina, South Carolina, Oregon, and Washington State. Information about these requirements, including documentation of the applicable legal code, is available on the first page of the report forms. Electronic copies of the report forms for each industry are available at <a href="/ces/idcfcesforms.htm">www.bls.gov/ces/idcfcesforms.htm</a>. </p> </div> </li> </ol> <div class="top" align="right"><a href="#top">Back to Top</a></div> <br> <!-- End k12-faq --> <p> </p> <p class='update'><strong>Last Modified Date: </strong>February 7, 2014</p> <!-- End Main Content --> <!-- ********************************************TRAILER FILES*********************************************** --> <!--#include virtual="/include/ces/ces_footer_two_col_basic.txt"--> <!-- ******************************************************************************************************** --> </body> </html>