This page compares the most recent set of labor force projections evaluations with previous sets. This comparison is meant to give the reader an idea of how well the BLS method works over time. The projections evaluations covered are for 2006–16, 2004–14, and 2002–12. For more information, refer to our evaluation methodology.
In past projections BLS has correctly projected the growth or decline (that is, the direction of change) for the majority of demographic groups in the labor force.
Actual growth in the labor force has consistently fallen short of the BLS projections and the naïve model, due at least in part to recessionary effects.
The naïve and BLS models have generally performed similarly.
Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018